Last year, in a far more in-depth preview than will be attempted this year (due to the World Cup), I ended things by placing 40 potential draftees in four categories: Best players in the draft, Safe picks to fill needs, Worth a flyer, and Potential busts.
One year later, those lists aren't hugely embarrassing. Of the eleven players I ranked as the best players in the draft, seven of them made the first or second All-Rookie teams. Granted, one can't brag too much about ranking Chris Paul as the fourth best prospect in the draft (though I did call him "the next Steve Nash") or Channing Frye as the second most likely bust in the draft, but I'll take my player evaluations (both prescient and misguided) against those of other amateur analysts.
I'll live blog the draft tomorrow night and give the reasons, such as they are, for these rankings then.
Best players (I've seen) in the draft
1. Brandon Roy
2. LaMarcus Aldridge
3. Randy Foye
4. Ronnie Brewer
Safe, useful picks to fill needs (some even with upside)
1. Rudy Gay
2. Shelden Williams
3. Rajon Rondo
4. PJ Tucker
5. Adam Morrison
6. Rodney Carney
7. Mardy Collins
8. Maurice Ager
9. JJ Redick
10. James Augustine
Worth a flyer if you can afford it (good role players/high-risk talents)
1. Tyrus Thomas
2. Jordan Farmar
3. Quincy Douby
4. Mike Gansey
5. Shannon Brown
6. Shawne Williams
7. Kyle Lowry
8. Cedric Simmons
9. Patrick O'Bryant
10. Renaldo Balkman
11. Hassan Adams
12. James White
Hoping your team doesn't waste a valuable pick on a bust
1. Marcus Williams
2. Gullermo Diaz
3. Hilton Armstrong
4. Alexander Johnnson
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