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6 plausible reasons for Atlanta optimism/keys to victory

1. Home-court advantage
2. Out-rebounding Miami is a bonus for a generally poor rebounding team.
3. Keeping Dwayne Wade off the free throw line (at least relative to how much Dwyane Wade wants to be at the free throw line).
4. Force/allow Wade and Diawara to shoot more than their share of three-pointers.
5. Five Hawks made more than 35% of their three-point attempts this season should Miami persist in forcing/allowing Atlanta to shoot a higher than normal number of three-pointers.
6. Chris Quinn

5 plausible reasons for Atlanta pessimism/causes of defeat

1. Miami forces enough Atlanta turnovers to negate any Atlanta gains on the offensive glass.
2. Dwyane Wade career regular season free throw rate: 39.3. Dwyane Wade career playoff free throw rate: 49.8.
3. As the series progresses Mario Chalmers realizes he can beat Mike Bibby off the dribble and becomes an inside/outside threat.
4. Daequan Cook's size turns Flip Murray circa 2008-09 into Flip Murray circa 2004-08.
5. Lingering, limiting back injuries.

Hawks in 6.