More On Point Guard Development

It shouldn't come to anyone's surprise that Kevin Pelton has already studied the issue of point guards struggling as rookies as well as their simultaneously unpredictable and larger than average improvement in subsequent seasons. I recommend reading the whole thing, but here's his conclusion:

Point guards are worse as rookies, they improve more, and their improvement is less predictable than at other positions. I've argued in the past that NBA observers are too slow in updating their evaluations of players to reflect their performance early in their NBA careers, but that may not be the case with point guards. We should be slower to come to judgments on point guards, and give them more of an opportunity to prove themselves.

Pelton's study is from 2004 and includes a far larger sample than did I as well as limiting the inquiry to point guards.