Just to continue the conversation though: I agree that Bibby will probably regress back to his career average on 3-point percentage, but Joe was below his career average by about the same amount as Bibby was above. So I would argue that the two would counteract.
As for Marvin, there is no telling where his percentage will end up. Sure he shot above his career percentage on 3s, but he also shot more 3s last year than all his previous years combined. So his career average isn't a good measure to predict where it will go this season. In fact I would argue that with his youth, work ethic, and if he stays healthy there is a good chance he could shoot at a higher percentage.
I agree with Bret that the 3-pt% will probably go down (which DOES matter for Mo Evans) at least for Josh, Bibby, and Evans.
I think we got lucky and the very high 3-pt% last year bailed us out when we didn't run real offensive sets and didn't rebound well. If we continue this same iso-Joe formula, we could be in for trouble.
I think our best bet is using the athleticism of our young bigs and pressing the issue with them to draw fouls, take higher percentage shots, and get more rebounds. The days of standing around and watching Joe get double-teamed need to end.
Thanks for stopping by. Here's the long version I probably should have gone ahead and written during the chat but I tried to be pithy...
The three-point shot was a huge part of the Hawks' offense last year and any declines in 3PTFG% could exacerbate other limitations. For example...
1) If Bibby and Evans don't make three-pointers at a high rate their usefulness is seriously limited. There's not a lot else they do offensively. Not turning the ball over is of limited utility if you don't pair that with some scoring.
2) The Hawks aren't very likely to rebound as many extra misses (should they occur) as are their opponents. This will be a bigger problem if Joe Smith (good defensive rebounder, average offensive rebounder) plays ahead of Pachulia very much.
3) The Hawks aren't built to get a lot of easy two-point shots and they're only an average team in getting points at the free throw line.
I worry that if the three-point shots dry up the team doesn't have a realistic and effective Plan B. I worry a lot, though. Even more often than I'm wrong about stuff.
It's hard for me to imagine us not dominating foul and FT situations most games if we can feed looks to Al and Marvin and if Josh can brilliantly play the post like he did in game 7 against Miami. Nothing helps getting back into games (which the Hawks will need to learn to do on the road to improve) like drawing fouls and going to the stripe.
When the chips are down and your "offensive plan" relies on making 3's success will be fleeting.
I thought you did a great job on the chat. Very informative even to people that follow the Hawks closely. Hopefully it will bring some more traffic to the Hawks blogosphere.
I spent like 30 minutes trying to mathematically disprove you about the 3 point shooting and couldn't do it. Although I hope your not using Marvin's career .301 average in your projections. That would seem grossly unfair to me. but disregarding Marvin, I figure it could cost us more than a half a point a game this season.
8 comments:
Thanks for doing the chat and answering a couple of my questions. Hope they do another one during the season.
Looks like a good chat, though even I feel like your 44 win assessment is very low-end.
New widget idea: Hoopinion Prediction Pessimism Converter. It would adjust all my predictions 6-10% to the better.
It was a very good chat. Thanks for doing it.
Just to continue the conversation though:
I agree that Bibby will probably regress back to his career average on 3-point percentage, but Joe was below his career average by about the same amount as Bibby was above. So I would argue that the two would counteract.
As for Marvin, there is no telling where his percentage will end up. Sure he shot above his career percentage on 3s, but he also shot more 3s last year than all his previous years combined. So his career average isn't a good measure to predict where it will go this season. In fact I would argue that with his youth, work ethic, and if he stays healthy there is a good chance he could shoot at a higher percentage.
I agree with Bret that the 3-pt% will probably go down (which DOES matter for Mo Evans) at least for Josh, Bibby, and Evans.
I think we got lucky and the very high 3-pt% last year bailed us out when we didn't run real offensive sets and didn't rebound well. If we continue this same iso-Joe formula, we could be in for trouble.
I think our best bet is using the athleticism of our young bigs and pressing the issue with them to draw fouls, take higher percentage shots, and get more rebounds. The days of standing around and watching Joe get double-teamed need to end.
Daniel--
Thanks for stopping by. Here's the long version I probably should have gone ahead and written during the chat but I tried to be pithy...
The three-point shot was a huge part of the Hawks' offense last year and any declines in 3PTFG% could exacerbate other limitations. For example...
1) If Bibby and Evans don't make three-pointers at a high rate their usefulness is seriously limited. There's not a lot else they do offensively. Not turning the ball over is of limited utility if you don't pair that with some scoring.
2) The Hawks aren't very likely to rebound as many extra misses (should they occur) as are their opponents. This will be a bigger problem if Joe Smith (good defensive rebounder, average offensive rebounder) plays ahead of Pachulia very much.
3) The Hawks aren't built to get a lot of easy two-point shots and they're only an average team in getting points at the free throw line.
I worry that if the three-point shots dry up the team doesn't have a realistic and effective Plan B. I worry a lot, though. Even more often than I'm wrong about stuff.
It's hard for me to imagine us not dominating foul and FT situations most games if we can feed looks to Al and Marvin and if Josh can brilliantly play the post like he did in game 7 against Miami. Nothing helps getting back into games (which the Hawks will need to learn to do on the road to improve) like drawing fouls and going to the stripe.
When the chips are down and your "offensive plan" relies on making 3's success will be fleeting.
I thought you did a great job on the chat. Very informative even to people that follow the Hawks closely. Hopefully it will bring some more traffic to the Hawks blogosphere.
I spent like 30 minutes trying to mathematically disprove you about the 3 point shooting and couldn't do it. Although I hope your not using Marvin's career .301 average in your projections. That would seem grossly unfair to me. but disregarding Marvin, I figure it could cost us more than a half a point a game this season.
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