February 28th Game Thread: Milwaukee (30-28) @ Atlanta (36-21)

TIP-OFF: 6pm (EST)

TELEVISION: SportSouth

CHAT: Daily Dime Live (in which I will participate)

RADIO: Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Bucks

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: None.

MILWAUKEE INJURY REPORT: Michael Redd is out.

BY THE NUMBERS

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
MIL (off)	91.1	1.064	48.2	17.4	26.4	14.5
ATL (def)	89.4	1.079	50	27.5	27.5	15.9

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
MIL (def)	91.1	1.051	49	35.7	22.9	16.9
ATL (off)	89.4	1.124	50.2	21.7	27.2	13.2

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Atlanta -8.5, 190 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Bucksketball, Brew Hoop

PREVIOUSLY, THE MILWAUKEE BUCKS...beat the Miami Heat (without Dwyane Wade) 94-71 in Miami yesterday afternoon. It was Milwaukee sixth straight win and seventh win in eight games. The Bucks have also won six straight road games, with their last loss away from home coming on February 2nd in Orlando.

One of my favorite players, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, has recently augmented his sterling defensive work with real offensive contributions. Over the last 11 games, he's averaged 10.6 points per game while increasing his season scoring rate by 16% and his season eFG% from 50.5 to 55.6.

This is the first meeting between the two teams this season.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Mavericks 111 Hawks 103 (OT)

Boxscore

Hoopdata Boxscore

Gameflow

Highlights

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
DALL	93.2	1.192	56	8.7	31.6	14
ATL	93.2	1.106	44.7	18.9	28.3	7.5

If you want to know why the Hawks, a team almost guaranteed home-court advantage in the first-round of the playoffs, have the legitimacy of their chances to do much more than show up and compete in the second-round questioned* more than other teams in similar circumstances, compare and contrast them with the Dallas Mavericks in overtime.

*As well as why it's difficult to formulate a convincing counter-argument.

The Mavericks relentlessly attacked Atlanta's weakest link, Mike Bibby, throughout the extra period. With Bibby matched up against Jose Juan Barea they forced Bibby to defend the pick-and-roll. Bibby's two choices: to try and cut off the corner and deny Berea's dribble penetration, or, switch onto Dirk Nowitzki. The former is close to impossible for Bibby. The latter is far from ideal. With Bibby matched up against Jason Kidd, the Mavericks isolated Kidd on the right side (with Nowitzki shaded to the ball side beyond the top of the key), let him back Bibby down, and encouraged the only other Atlanta defender nearby (Josh Smith) to provide help defense. Once Smith helped off of Nowitzki, Kidd made a simple pass and Nowitzki, with no Atlanta defender in a position from which to rotate in time, made an open three. Despite this obvious, purposeful, and relentless attack against a poor defender, Mike Woodson left Bibby in the game until Dallas had the ball with the Hawks were down five with less than a minute left.

The Hawks, despite showing some intermittent understanding of and ability to break down the Dallas zone (a modified 2-3 that allowed Kidd, on the right side of the baseline, some freedom to wreak havoc), had no clear plan of attack. That may be giving them the benefit of the doubt. If they had a plan of attack it contained two parts: 1) Have Joe Johnson back down Barea (one of the two guys at the top of the Dallas zone) into the heart of the zone before A) taking a contested shot or B) passing out of traffic to a wide-open (natch) Josh Smith 20-feet from the basket for Smith to miss (natch, again) a jump shot just before the shot clock expires; 2) Have Johnson or Jamal Crawford keep the ball outside the three-point line until a half-chance for a three-point attempt presents itself.

The first part accounted for two empty possessions (plus Josh Smith's put-back that prevented the overtime shutout). The second part accounted for three empty possessions. The Hawks had ten overtime possessions in total. It's an extra shame that the offense imploded as it hummed so efficiently for most of the game* by the virtue of ball movement. The Hawks earned assists on 32 of their 38 made field goals. Five Hawks (Johnson, Smith, Al Horford, Bibby, and Crawford) tallied at least four assists. Many if not most of their free throw attempts were the result of good player and ball movement. Yet, still, what they're collectively best at is far from constant. There remains some disconnect in the understanding of how best practices lead to good results.

*Admittedly barring that 9:51 stretch in the first half where the Hawks didn't make a field goal though that stretch did include approximately as many missed open shots as did Dallas's 15-point third quarter.

On to the game's other talking point: Mike Woodson's fourth quarter technical. I've been critical of both the timing of and propensity for the head coach's technicals this season. This time, he got jobbed. Railroaded, even. The replays showed that Woodson had clearly gotten back* out of bounds before Kidd (himself with at least one foot out of bounds) made glancing contact with his outstretched left arm. The replays, though, only confirmed what was an obviously terrible call when witnessed live. Jason Kidd only came into contact with Mike Woodson because he, Kidd, veered suddenly to the left when approaching the Hawks' bench. Jason Kidd only came into contact with Mike Woodson because Kidd purposely dribbled the ball out of bounds.

*Oh, that one of Woodson's veteran guards had feet that quick.

It looked weird. It didn't look like a basketball play. It wasn't a basketball play. It was an attempt to con the refs and the refs fell for it. They waived the element of risk inherent in purposely dribbling the ball out of bounds in the pursuit of one point. If Kidd draws (or even creates) contact with a coach who's on the court, fair play to him. He didn't manage that but his failure didn't matter on a night where, otherwise, Kidd rarely failed.

It's a credit to Woodson (and his team) that he (and they) did not lose his (their) cool given the circumstances and the unjust penalty delivered upon him. It will be a discredit to every copycat who attempts to mimic this nationally televised bit of gamesmanship.

Jason Kidd:

"The coach is not supposed to be on the floor. You see that a lot in games. The NBA has so many rules, and there is a coaching box, and some of the coaches do stretch that box. For me, it's just a reaction. Make something happen. It was a big play for us."

Mike Woodson:

"He made a heck of a play. Jason Kidd is an All-Star, a Hall of Fame guard, and he’s had a hell of a career. He did what he had to do. I’ve got to take the hit on that. I shouldn’t have been on the floor."

Rick Carlisle:

"This is one for the ages. I don’t think there’s ever been a smarter player in this league than Jason Kidd."

Joe Johnson:

"It was a big deal. He just blatantly ran into our coach. I’ve never seen that.

Coaches are always on the floor, but nobody tries to run into them. I might have to try and do that."

Please don't.

The Human Highlight Blog:

Some call this veteran or savvy. We call it a "jerk" move.

Woodson was off the court, Kidd initiated contact, with a forearm shiver no less. It's not basketball, yet there it was.

Still, it had nothing to do with Kidd killing the Hawks with threes (3 of them in that run) or leading the charge of standing around in a zone while the Hawks continued to try to shoot over it with no success over and over again. And it certainly didn't take away from the statistically incredible night Kidd had. Bravo.

The Vent:

"They T'd Woody up. Okay fine, what's done is done. My question is simply this, WHY IN THE HELL WOULD MIKE WOODSON AGREE WITH THEM?

He should not be on record saying Kidd made a "heck of a play" and all the other nonsense he spewed after the game. He should be screaming at the top of his lungs that he made it off the court before Kidd came over and shoved him. Why is he going the opposite way? Whose side is he on? I've seen the replay, and it's not like there was overwhelming evidence against that theory. I'm blown away that he is going along with this Jason Kidd is a genius bullshit. Seriously, even if it turns out that there's indisputable evidence that you didn't make it off in time, you don't go into the post game press conference tipping your hat to him. You bitch and moan and act like Kidd just assaulted you like you were his wife. (yes, that was a cheap shot, but I'm mad)"

I get in less trouble for quoting the joke I lack the balls to make myself, don't I?

John Hollinger deems the play "unusually clever." I wonder if a look at the replay would change the good professor's mind.

Kurt Helin at Pro Basketball Talk:

Jason Kidd is a clever a%($hole.

At least his play was, drawing a technical on Atlanta coach Mike Woodson. Smart play. Good strategy. Got a technical free throw (made by Dirk), a point that helped send the game to overtime where his team went on to win.

Still an a*#$hole move.

As for the bulk of the game...

Joe Johnson:

"It kind of changed the game, but that’s not what lost the game for us. They went zone, and we couldn’t get no continuity on offense.

We just played one-on-one against the zone"

We?

Josh Smith:

"I think we settled too much in the zone instead of attacking. It really wasn’t an aggressive zone. They were just letting us shoot jump shots."

These would be perfectly fine and reasonable quotes were this the first time the Hawks had self-inflicted such a fate but as the good-natured Michael Cunningham trenchantly points out:

With the notable exception of the Jazz game, show some resistance against the Hawks late in games and they will stop moving the ball to get better shots.

Courtesy of ESPN Stats and Information: The Hawks were 1-9 from the field in the game (0-4 in the fourth quarter and overtime) against Dallas's zone.

Mark Bradley:

A really good team doesn’t lose games like this, and that’s what the Hawks aspire to become and, for tantalizing stretches, seem to be. But how do you lose on a night when a technical foul against your coach for brushing the opposing point guard is the difference between winning in regulation and walking off with various manifestations of egg — scrambled, poached, everything except sunny-side-up — on your face.

Again, Kurt Helin at Pro Basketball Talk:

Personally, I give this win to Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle. For the fourth quarter, down 15 with 8 minutes to go, he broke out the zone defense, and the Hawks turned into the UCLA Bruins. This year's UCLA Bruins. They seemed confused and couldn't hit the outside shot.

February 26th Open Thread: Dallas (37-21) @ Atlanta (36-20)

TIP-OFF: 7pm (EST)

TELEVISION: ESPN, ESPN360

CHAT: Daily Dime Live (in which I will not be able to participate)

RADIO: Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Mavericks

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: None.

DALLAS INJURY/ABSENCE REPORT: Caron Butler is probable. Erick Dampier is out. Tim Thomas is not with the team for personal reasons.

BY THE NUMBERS

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
DALL (off)	90.8	1.099	49.7	23.3	24.8	14.3
ATL (def)	89.5	1.077	49.8	27.8	27.4	15.9

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
DALL (def)	90.8	1.077	49.5	26.7	25.7	15.7
ATL (off)	89.5	1.125	50.3	21.8	27.2	13.3

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Atlanta -3, 194.5 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: The Two Man Game, DallasBasketball.com, Mavs Moneyball

PREVIOUSLY, THE DALLAS MAVERICKS...beat the Los Angeles Lakers 101-96 on TK for their fifth straight win. They've not lost since acquiring Caron Butler (who missed the Lakers game due to an adverse reaction to medication), Brendan Haywood, and, to a far, far lesser extent DeShawn Stevenson from the Wizards. Their current win streak includes a 95-85 win in Orlando last Friday.

The Hawks beat the Mavericks 80-75 in Dallas on December 5th.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Today's Ilgauskas Delusion Update

The Wizards reached a buyout deal with Ilgauskas:

The Wizards have reached a buyout agreement with center Zydrunas Ilgauskas, according to a person with knowledge of the negotiations. The 7-foot-3 Ilgauskas is expected to pay back between $1 million and $1.5 million of his $11.5 million contract, the person said. Ilgauskas agreed to the terms late Wednesday night. A formal announcement will likely come on Thursday.

From Michael Cunningham in the AJC:

Though it is widely assumed Ilgauskas will return to the Cavaliers, who drafted him in 1997, his agent has said Ilgauskas will consider signing with the Hawks and will take the weekend to think over his decision. Dallas, Denver, and Utah also are expected to make pitches to the 7-foot-3 center. The Cavs would have to wait 30 days until after they traded him to re-sign him while any other team can sign him after a 48-hour waiver period.

...

Ilgauskas would add three things the Hawks can use: size, shooting and playoff experience (64 games).

Size: Ilgauskas would provide the Hawks with an apparently much-needed fourth backup center.

Shooting : Ilgauskas shoots even more long jumpers than Smith. 53% of Ilgauskas' field goal attempts have come at least 16 feet from the basket: Ilgauskas' 46.7 eFG% is his lowest in seven seasons despite a career-low usage rate (almost 20% lower than his career average) and his 49.9 TS% is a career low. To be fair, both marks are better than what the Hawks are getting from Joe Smith (40.1 eFG%, 45.2 TS%). compared to 48.8% of Smith's field goal attempts.

Playoff experience: Ilgauskas would give Mike Woodson two ineffectual veteran big men to play ahead of Al Horford and Josh Smith should either commit two fouls in the first half.

Unmentioned is defense. Who wants to see Ilgauskas try and switch every screen? Don't all raise your hands at once. He's also well-below his career averages in block rate, steal rate, defensive rebound rate, and above his career average in fouls committed. He is no longer the (very good) player you remember.

Per the post title, I think it's even more delusional to believe that Ilgauskas would help the Hawks than that he would sign with the Hawks.

Hawks 98 Timberwolves 92

Boxscore

Hoopdata Boxscore

Gameflow

Highlights

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
MINN	93.3	0.986	49.4	17.7	17.1	16.1
ATL	93.3	1.051	43.2	34.6	27.9	16.1

Congratulations, you're good enough to barely a beat (at home) a terrible team that's not playing particularly well even by their own standards. Other than Jeff Teague and Mo Evans I don't think there's a Hawk player exempt from criticism.

Josh Smith: 27, 10 , and 5 are difficult numbers with which to find fault but six of those points came because he made three of three unnecessary long jump shots and, had he made a more statistically probable one or none of those attempts, the game's result might have been different. Also, Smith's defense against Ryan Hollins was shockingly poor. Hollins scored with ease. Ryan Hollins. Seriously.

Al Horford: Horford provided the flip side to Smith's defensive struggles by demonstrating an inability to score when guarded by Al Jefferson, needing 14 shots to score just 11 points. This negated, to some degree, Horford's good work on the glass (13 rebounds, 2 offensive) and the five assists he earned.

Joe Johnson: Johnson made it three-for-three among Atlanta's best players in providing some good, some bad, but not enough to convince. He had a perfectly acceptable game prior to some serious, painful passivity on several fourth quarter possessions. When tallying up results at the end of the season as to which portion of blame for the team's fourth quarter offensive struggles goes to the system/coach and which portion goes to the players, last night's game goes largely on the player side of the ledger, sub-category Joe Johnson. He called off ball-screens more than once to size up the multiple defenders Minnesota had set (and I mean set) to defend him before dribbling himself into position to take a difficult shot or contribute mightily to a shot clock violation.

Jamal Crawford: He's near useless when he's not making shots and he didn't make any shots last night. Committed more turnovers (2) than he scored points (1) useless. Finished the game +2 only because he had the privilege of being on the court while Jeff Teague ran things in the first half. Still, Crawford played over 28 minutes. More on that below.

Mike Bibby: Bibby played, by his current standard, three good quarters of basketball. (Plus, it tickled me that Bibby, who's been hidden from guarding both Chris Duhon and Ronnie Price this season, was matched up against Jonny Flynn all night.) He was useless (or, useful, if you look at it from the perspective of helping to slow the game down to a crawl which, evidence suggests, is what this team may want to do late in games) in the fourth quarter last night playing 10 minutes and 10 seconds, missing his only field goal attempt and turning the ball over twice. Mike Bibby's employed to make jump shots and not turn the ball over. If he's failing in both areas why does remain in the game?

Marvin Williams: If I may partially answer my own question: 4 points, 0-4 from the field, 1 rebound, 2 turnovers in 20:40.

Zaza Pachulia and Joe Smith: Had these two taken advantage of the scoring opportunities presented them at a better rate than 1-5 at the rim (to be fair, 4-4 from the free throw line as well) some of the above might not have had the opportunity to occur. To his credit, Pachulia made an impact on the glass (7 rebounds, 3 offensive in just 10:38). Joe Smith, when he wasn't missing layups, was sucking up to the head coach by taking long two-point jumpers. I won't insult your intelligence by pretending it matters he didn't make them.

Mike Woodson: Coach, the next time you wonder why you get criticism for how you use your bench, watch the tape of this game again. No one doubts your ability to construct a gameplan. It's the apparent lack of ability to adjust that gameplan based on the reality game events that frustrates. Clearly, you began the night with the intention of playing Pachulia and Joe Smith for an extended stint in the first half. While they're failing to convert scoring opportunities Jeff Teague (playing his best basketball of the season in the first half) hands them and getting beat down the court by Kevin Love in transition, Mo Evans is cleaning up their misses with a tip-in and making an open three. But the plan's to give the big guys more run so Evans (Hawks +9 since he entered the game) and Teague (Hawks +8 since he entered the game) rather than Smith and Pachulia go back to the bench just 3 minutes and 40 seconds in to the second quarter.

Similarly, during Minnesota's 12-1 run at the end of the third/start of the fourth quarter, Jamal Crawford turns the ball over twice (and looked to be at fault for the turnover credited to Zaza Pachulia to open the fourth quarter) and misses a three-pointer. Joe Smith misses two field goal attempts and one of two free throws. Mike Woodson's response? To remove Pachulia and Teague for Horford and Bibby. Crawford would go on to miss three more shots before being removed, with 2:05 left in the game, in favor of Marvin Williams.

Finally, with 20.8 seconds left, Minnesota ball, down 90-97, Mike Woodson removes Mike Bibby because Mike Bibby can't guard anyone. Fair play. Mike Woodson replaces Bibby with Mario West. Mario West, who hasn't played all night, is put in the game to guard Jonny Flynn. Mario West, rather than, say, Jeff Teague, who has played well and, more specifically relevant, has defended Jonny Flynn well earlier in the game.

These are not complicated concepts: Play your best players the most, keep the reserves who are playing well on the floor, and take the reserves who are killing you off the floor, put your future point guard in the game before your mascot.

Still, I'd rather have Mike Woodson, who has mostly mastered the first of those concepts, than Kurt Rambis who appears to be incapable even of identifying* which are his best players.

*HINT: Kevin Love and Al Jefferson and Ramon Sessions, not Ryan Hollins and Jonny Flynn and Wayne Ellington.

Jamal Crawford:

"It’s a good win. The first game at home after a long trip is usually a tough one."

Joe Johnson:

"We were OK. It was nothing to really write home about."

The Human Highlight Blog:

Among power forwards who play 25+ minutes per game, [Josh] Smith is first in assists and weighted assists (which gives bonus for assists leading to a three). He is also 4th among power forwards in assist to turnover ratio, with 1.84, which is by far his best in his career.

February 24th Open Thread: Minnesota (14-44) @ Atlanta (35-20)

TIP-OFF: 7pm (EST)

TELEVISION: SportSouth

CHAT: Daily Dime Live (in which I will not be able to participate)

RADIO: Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Timberwolves

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: None.

MINNESOTA INJURY REPORT: None.

BY THE NUMBERS

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
MINN (off)	94.3	1.029	47.5	20	27.4	17
ATL (def)	89.4	1.079	49.9	27.9	27.6	15.9

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
MINN (def)	94.3	1.118	51.9	28.7	26.1	15.5
ATL (off)	89.4	1.126	50.5	21.6	27.2	13.3

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Atlanta -12, 203 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Howlin' T-Wolf, Canis Hoopus

PREVIOUSLY, THE MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES...beat the (Dwyane Wade-less) Heat 91-88 in Miami last night to break a six-game losing streak. The win coincided with (but probably not coincidental to) Kurt Rambis apparently remembering that reserve Kevin Love is a hell of a lot better than starter Ryan Hollins and giving Love more minutes than Hollins, a task which has been inexplicably difficult for Rambis recently.

The Hawks destroyed the Timberwolves 112-87 on December 22nd in Minnesota.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Basketball Prospectus: Pelton: Summer 2010 Preview

It's always nice to have someone provide sound data to back up something I've been railing about for a long time. The projections and comps* for Joe Johnson are not encouraging and could serve as a warning to any team considering paying him a lot of money over the next several years. The SCHOENE projection system** projects Johnson to be less valuable over the next three years than the following fellow free agents...

• LeBron James
• Dwyane Wade
• Chris Bosh
• Manu Ginobili
• Amare Stoudemire (should he opt out)
• David Lee
• Rudy Gay
• Dirk Nowitzki
• Paul Pierce (should he shock everyone and opt out)
• Carlos Boozer
• Tyrus Thomas
• Raymond Felton
• Ronnie Brewer
• Marcus Camby
• Shaquille O'Neal
• Brendan Haywood

Pelton:

There are a couple of factors at play here. First, Johnson's statistics have never matched his reputation. Second, players of Johnson's ilk--above-average starting wings--have tended to decline in a hurry in their early 30s. By year three, just two of Johnson's top 10 comparables (Steve Smith and Jalen Rose) were offering their team any kind of value. A max deal for Johnson could end up very ugly.

Now, I don't think Joe Johnson will actually be less valuable than all of those guys but the odds are he will be less valuable than many of them and I think it's unlikely that the value of his performance will not match the cost of his contract before the deal ends (and I think most people agree, though the point at which this is expected to occur is a reasonable matter of debate) should he sign a max or near-max contract.

Which is what makes it a shame both that the Hawks never acquired sufficient assets during Johnson's prime to acquire an equally good or better player to pair with Johnson and that they've put themselves in a cap situation where re-signing Johnson for more money than he can reasonably hope to be worth may be the lesser of two evils.

Joe Johnson turns 29 in four months and five days. He's averaged at least 39.5 minutes per game for each of the last six seasons (during which he missed just 28 games total) and is averaging 37.9 minutes per game so far this season.

Should the Hawks gamble on signing Johnson, getting one more good year out of him and then attempt to trade him before he craters in attempt to rebuild the team as Al Horford's extension eats up most of the cap space the expiration of Jamal Crawford's contract would create?

Or, would they be better off letting another team win the bidding war for Johnson by agreeing to a sign-and-trade with Atlanta, hoping to find a bargain free agent, and (finally) getting something of value for the rights to Josh Childress?

I don't know the answer. This franchise has built a playoff team by making a series of decisions that counter my deepest beliefs about how to build a championship-quality NBA team. Rick Sund may have a plan to extricate the franchise from the corner it's in (and that he largely inherited) that I cannot grasp and it may work perfectly. Or it might not work at all but even that wouldn't mean it was a bad plan, just one I couldn't grasp beforehand. Either way, we're in for a fascinating (and, I predict, a contentious) off-season. It'll be intersting but I can't say I look forward to it.

*I missed this excellent FanPost by YaoPau on Blog-a-Bull two weeks ago that compares Johnson to other big guards in their late 20s and early 30s. It's worth your time.

**Which accurately projected Mike Bibby's ineffectiveness and Josh Smith's resurgence before the season.

Hoopdata: Shot Location in Motion

Tom Haberstroth explains:

It's a customizable toy displaying each player's shot location data on a per game basis. All the data from the Hoopdata player shot location page is at your fingertips. And yes, it has a play button.

Fun to play around with once you get the hang of all your options. Look at Josh Smith at the rim and from 16-23 feet (or his three-point eFG%) and you'll see how his improvement has been in shot selection far more than any change in the rate at which he makes any particular category of shot.

Hawks 105 Jazz 100

Boxscore

Gameflow

Highlights

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL	81.7	1.285	59.7	26.4	22.6	9.8
UTAH	81.7	1.224	50.6	16.5	42.2	13.5

Two streaks ended last one night. One began over 17 years ago. The other began at halftime in Phoenix Friday night. The absence of Deron Williams and Andrei Kirilenko shouldn't take from either accomplishment. The Hawks are not yet good enough to concern themselves with the quality of their road wins and creating high percentage shots in the half-court in the fourth quarter against any five people is a profound and noticeable improvement.

For the better part of the past two seasons, I wrote about how initiating the half-court offense through Josh Smith either in the low- or high-post (last night Smith and the Hawks extended his usefulness all the way to the top of they key) would improve both spacing and ball movement simply by putting Smith in a position where he had to be guarded. That this inversion of the typical offensive set would also put Joe Johnson in a position where he was still capable of finishing (and might even create for him easier shot opportunities than he could get on his own) made it seem a no-brainer.

Last night, the Hawks (mostly) went down that tactical path for the final seven minutes. Smith took two shots (an alley oop from Mike Bibby and a layup and-one), scored five points, earned three assists, and did not turn the ball over. One of those assists set up Jamal Crawford for a wide-open three-pointer. The other two of those assists led directly to Joe Johnson buckets (a three-pointer and a layup). Johnson scored 11 points in the last 7-and-a-half minutes of the fourth quarter. He needed just five shots to do so.

Johnson didn't score in the third quarter but it may still have been a great stretch for his reputation among Hawks fans, a reminder that it's more the "iso" than the "Joe" that frustrates. The Hawks spent much of the third quarter making a concerted effort to get the ball to Al Horford on the left block. Horford's post game is improving but remains a work in progress. He doesn't necessarily draw a double-team. Not that Utah had to commit to double-teaming him while he was isolated on the left block. As is typical of the iso-Joe sets, Josh Smith set up 20-22 feet from the basket on the wing opposite Horford and, as is typical of the iso-Joe sets, the other team (quite reasonably) felt no need to pay attention to him there. Furthermore, as is typical of the iso-Joe sets, Smith just stood there. Horford would receive the entry pass, look for the double team, see none arriving but recognize the opportunity for one to come, begin his (somewhat mechanical and deliberate) post move, at that point get doubled, and have no teammate working to help him.

It's to Horford's credit that, though the effort to get him the ball didn't increase his usage, he maintained his efficiency. On the night, he got to the line eight times, allowing to score 13 points on just four field goal attempts while adding three assists against a single turnover.

As lovely as the half-court offense was in the fourth quarter, Mike Bibby's play and his presence on the court for all but the final 24 seconds of the fourth quarter creates concern. On a night where both Marvin Williams and Maurice Evans were aggressive and productive, Mike Woodson chose to leave Bibby on the floor to be harassed by Ronnie Price's ball pressure before spotting up and waiting for someone to give him the ball back and to be hidden defensively on (but not stopping) Wes Matthews or CJ Miles. While the Hawks ran beautiful sets through Josh Smith, Utah kept pace for almost the entire fourth quarter by running their offense through Kyle Korver or Miles simply because they were guarded (poorly) by Jamal Crawford and Bibby, respectively.

I still fail to see the compelling argument for playing two poor perimeter defenders together for long stretches of the fourth quarter especially when one of them is incapable of creating his own shot and looks increasingly unlikely to convert the open shots his teammates create for him. If Bibby really is something like a 35% three-point shooter these days, well, so are Williams and Evans and they're both better defenders and rebounders and are no more likely to turn the ball over than Bibby.

Joe Johnson:

"I thought we were very composed tonight in the fourth quarter when we got down. We were able to not get rattled and made a run of our own."

Al Horford:

"He [Josh Smith] kept harping on us to share the ball, share the ball and make it easier for each other."

Josh Smith:

"I just noticed that we were passing the ball one time and taking a shot. They were catching our misses and getting out on the break."

Mike Woodson:

"That was a total team effort by everybody who played. That’s what we need the rest of the way."

You can make it so, sir, and, in doing so, make your future.

Jamal Crawford on his dumb technical in Oakland:

"I’ll take the blame for that loss. When good things happen I get credit so I’ve got to take blame when things go bad."

Jerry Sloan:

"Well, we made a couple mistakes trying to come down the stretch and turned the ball over a couple times and missed free throws that could help keep you in there. But I thought our guys played hard, being short-handed and that kind of thing. I thought everybody tried to step up and play hard."

February 22nd Open Thread: Atlanta (34-20) @ Utah (36-19)

TIP-OFF: 9pm (EST)

TELEVISION: SportSouth

CHAT: Daily Dime Live (in which I will be participating)

RADIO: Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Jazz

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: None.

UTAH INJURY REPORT: Andrei Kirilenko left last night's game with back spasms and is a game-time decision. Mehmut Okur is expected to return to action following the birth of his son.

BY THE NUMBERS

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (off)	89.6	1.123	50.3	21.5	27.2	13.3
UTAH (def)	91.6	1.055	48.6	34.6	25.2	16.6

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (def)	89.6	1.076	49.8	27.9	27.3	16
UTAH (off)	91.6	1.11	52	25.5	25.6	16.8

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Utah -5, 196 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Salt City Hoops, SLC Dunk

PREVIOUSLY, THE UTAH JAZZ...came from 25 points down to win 93-89 in overtime in Portland last night without Andrei Kirilenko or Mehmet Okur. It was Utah's fourth straight win, all of them coming on the road. Reaching back further, the Jazz have won 13 of 14 and 17 of 19 with lone losses coming at Denver and at home against the Lakers.

The Hawks beat the Jazz quite impressively (96-83) in Atlanta on December 18th. The Hawks have lost fifteen straight in Salt Lake City, their last win coming 17 years ago. Wow...Koncak, Keefe, Graham, and Henson. What a bench that was. Depth has never really been this organization's strength has it?

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Warriors 108 Hawks 104

Boxscore

Gameflow

Highlights

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL	95.3	1.091	48.3	21.6	29.5	14.7
GS	95.3	1.133	55.4	17.9	23.1	13.6

The essential version of my thoughts is up at The Daily Dime (#9). Rather than reconstitute the long(-er) version of that, allow me to expand on certain threads in the time-tested bullet-point format.

• The two key differences in the fourth quarter were 1) Josh Smith's refusal to attack the basket and finish off the Warriors and 2) Don Nelson's refusal to let Monta Ellis finish off the Warriors. Smith went 0-5 from the floor and earned just one assist. His first and last field goal attempts of the quarter were unnecessary jump shots. He repeatedly tried (and failed) to back down Andris Biedrins rather than going around (or past) him from a moving start as he did so frequently in the previous quarter. Keeping Ellis out of the game for most of the fourth quarter didn't just reduce the number of terrible shots on Golden State possesions, it also forced Joe Johnson to work much harder for his points than he had to when matched up against Ellis. It's to Ellis's credit that, when he returned for the final four minutes, he went all Mike Bibby, gambling for steals on the premise that if Johnson got a shot up against him it would be a high percentage shot. It's a doomed strategy for 48 minutes but can turn the tide of a game that's been shortened to 10 possessions in length.
• Joe Johnson played a good fourth quarter. Unless one considers iso-Joe to be a contagion, this loss wasn't on him at all. Yes, he used the bulk of the team's possessions but, unlike his teammates, he converted his scoring opportunities at a high rate. Not having to help Ellis on Johnson also freed the rest of the Warriors to give Smith and Horford more attention in the fourth quarter.
• Jamal Crawford and Mike Bibby don't offer much (in Bibby's case, anything) when they're not making shots. Crawford played the entire fourth quarter, Bibby played the final 6:41. Neither made a shot. Bibby didn't even attempt a field goal. Marvin Williams is no panacea, but his abilities as a rebounder and defender make him a better option than playing both defensive sieves down the stretch.
• It should not be overlooked that Jeff Teague played a fine game and finished off the third quarter quite strongly. When he becomes a full-fledged member of the rotation, I suspect some of these dribble penetration prevention issues will magically disappear.
• It'd be nice to have those four first half minutes Mario West played back so as to give them to a useful contributor. There's been no report of Mo Evans being unavailable last night.
• Mario West's limitations didn't cost the team the game, but his inclusion in the game is an example of deep concern I have about this team: possessions, even points, aren't taken seriously on a consistent basis. Other symptoms include Josh Smith taking jump shots (or Josh Smith even being on the court for a final possession with the Hawks down three), the failure to make (or maintain) the connection between defensive rebounding and transition opportunities, and both the volume and timing of technical fouls earned. From the head coach on down on the last score.

Jamal Crawford:

"I thought I got pushed under the basket. He (the official) didn’t think so. I voiced my frustration and got the technical."

Fouled or not, called or not, the ball went out of bounds off of Golden State. The Hawks had the ball under their own basket with 34.6 seconds left (and almost an entire shot clock) in what would have been a tie game had Crawford not given the Warriors a point there because...he felt like it?

Mike Woodson:

"The tech didn't help us with Jamal. I thought he got fouled. He got hit and bumped almost out of bounds, and he didn't get the call. Sometimes that happens. He kind of lost his composure."

Al Horford:

"We were too comfortable. We thought we could just let them make their run and come back and we would still win."

Mike Woodson:

"We just failed to execute coming down the stretch. We had a comfortable lead and we stopped doing the things that got us the lead. Defensively, we just shut down."

Peachtree Hoops:

One fourth quarter possession I especially enjoyed was Joe Johnson dribbling it up and immediately posting himself up, then passing out to Crawford. Al Horford came up on the other side to set a pick for Crawford with the defense all over rotated to Joe's side, and Crawford just passed back into Joe before Al even got there. Joe put up an airball floater.

Don Nelson:

"It was one of those games where we pulled all of the right strings and made big shots. We were a little lucky, too, but we'll take it."

Chris Hunter:

"What we wanted to do is protect the basket and help the smalls out because they have big guards posting up. We were able to get rebounds, run, leak out and get some fast-break buckets."

Monta Ellis:

"Me being me, I always want to be out there. I just sat back and waited my turn. Coach called me, I was ready."

Mike Woodson:

"We built a comfortable lead and failed to continue to do the things that got us into the lead, and we just can't do that. I haven't seen that all year from this team, except the time we self-destructed in Cleveland."

Ahem.

Matt Moore at Pro Basketball Talk:

[T]heir ball-movement came to a crashing halt as we've seen before this season. The inability of the coaching staff to program a low-post set has killed them this season. They're somehow afraid of what has gotten them so much success the rest of the games.

Mike Bibby:

"We just fell apart. We're up 20 points. A team of our caliber shouldn't lose that game. It happened but we can't let it happen too much."

CJ Watson:

"A win is a win to us. We just get them however they come, whether it's a sorry team or a playoff team like that. It doesn't matter. We're just trying to get as many wins as possible and get coach his record."

The Human Highlight Blog sums up what last night's loss means:

[T]he blueprint and DNA of this loss is one that is marked across the franchise at this point, with these players, and these coaches. The refusal to play fundamental basketball and eschewing of what has proven to be successful even throughout the course of the single game that they are playing has served and will serve as their ultimate escort from the 2009-2010 season.

Your Nationally Televised Open Thread: Atlanta (34-19) @ Golden State (15-39)

TIP-OFF: 8pm (EST)

TELEVISION: ESPN, ESPN360

CHAT: Daily Dime Live (in which I will be participating)

RADIO: Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Warriors

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: None.

GOLDEN STATE INJURY REPORT: Anthony Randolph, Kelenna Azubuike, Raja Bell, and Brandan Wright are out. Vladimir Radmanovic is questionable.

BY THE NUMBERS

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (off)	89.5	1.124	50.4	21.5	27.2	13.3
GS (def)	98.7	1.116	51.7	34.9	30.4	18.2

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (def)	89.5	1.075	49.7	28	27.4	16
GS (off)	98.7	1.084	50.8	24.1	21.3	15.8

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Atlanta -5, 212.5 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Warriors World, Golden State of Mind

PREVIOUSLY, THE GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS...lost 100-89 to the Jazz at home Friday night. Monta Ellis returned after missing three games but made little positive impact, missing 12 of his 14 field goal attempts while earning six assists against three turnovers in 28 minutes.

Rookie guard Stephon Curry led the Warriors to victories in two of the three games Ellis missed, torching the Clippers to the tune of 36 points (on 22 shots), 10 rebounds, and 13 assists and scoring 24 points (on 15 shots) and earning 15 assists against the Kings on successive Wednesdays in Oakland.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.

Two Perspectives On The Rotation

HawkStr8Talk has a long piece exploring why this:

“I did something last night I haven’t done all year in terms of playing six guys,” [Woodson] said. “I really thought we could beat those guys like that but it backfired on me because their second unit beat us.”

and this:

“I had to see something for myself,” Woody said. “I condensed things last night almost like it was a playoff game, when your backs are against the wall and you have to have one. I blew out six guys trying to do it. I can tell you it won’t happen again.”

don't really make any sense. The key excerpt:

Not only do I question the tactic, but I also question the reasoning - it just doesn't make sense. teams are getting better by bolstering their teams 1-11 or 12 and you made the decision to SHRINK the bench on the road in a non-essential game and that was supposed to turn out well..how! Not only that - what message does that send to the bench? I can see sending a message that says - BENCH go win us a game without the starters that even if you lose, you might win, but the reverse is assuredly more likely. You can win the battle and lose the war.

In less serious analysis, Floyd Mayweather, Jr. tells Nima Zarrabi of SLAM Online that Mike Woodson might be costing the team upwards of 12-and-a-half points a game by not starting Jamal Crawford:

"What the Atlanta Hawks need is this: we need to let Bibby come off the bench and let Jamal Crawford start. Anytime a guy can come off the bench and score 50 points in a game—he needs to be starting! He might be putting up 30 a night if he’s starting!"

Floyd also thinks the Hawks should acquire Amare Stoudemire (as is typical of hypothetical Hawks trades he does not specify how this would be done) and that losing Stoudemire would cost Steve Nash six assists per game. I suspect Floyd was a big Shawn Marion fan five years ago.

Suns 88 Hawks 80

Boxscore

Hoopdata Boxscore

Gameflow

Highlights

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL	89	0.899	41.4	22.4	20	16.8
PHX	89	0.988	46.3	14.6	34.1	19.1

30 second half points against the league's 29th-stingiest defense? One of those things that can happen on the road? An example of the difference between playing the slightly above average Suns and the dismantled Clippers? Just a good night for the "under" bettors? New rims installed at US Airways Center over the break? Or, another manifestation of the lack of Plan B, the familiar lack of ball movement* simply thrown into sharper than normal relief by Mike Woodson's decision to use just six players in the second half while Phoenix's second half run was courtesy of a lineup of Dragic, Richardson, Dudley, Amundson, and Frye?

*13 made field goals, 3 assists for the Hawks in the second half

Mike Woodson used but six guys to tally those 30 points despite only two of the six (Josh Smith and Joe Johnson) having played well in the first half and none of them playing well at any point* in the second half.

• Marvin Williams scored two points, grabbed one rebound, and committed two turnovers in 16:52.
• Mike Bibby was 0-4 from the floor, committed two turnovers and didn't register an assist in 17:50.
• Josh Smith scored 21 points through three quarters. He scored 0 in 9:55 of playing time in the fourth quarter.
• Al Horford didn't score in the final 10:56 of the game, though he did, to his credit, grab half of Atlanta's eight fourth quarter rebounds.
• Joe Johnson scored 17 points through three quarters. He made a single bucket in the fourth, a runner with 5:24 left that cut Phoenix's lead to 11. Did he attempt any free throws in the fourth quarter? Of course he did not.
  
• Jamal Crawford scored 8 of Atlanta's 14 fourth quarter points but those were Atlanta's final 8 points, spread out over the final 4:48 with the Hawks down at least nine prior to each bucket.

*Horford's back-to-back buckets to open the fourth quarter were nice but his other good offensive work was undone by coming up empty on all four of his fourth quarter free throw attempts.

Mike Woodson on his short second half rotation:

"I decided to go that route. I learned a little something tonight because that won’t happen again."

Jamal Crawford:

"Maybe we lost focus a little bit and it caught up with us."

Josh Smith:

"We just got outplayed, bottom line."

Al Horford:

"We were not doing enough to get stops when we needed them. We were not being aggressive enough in the fourth quarter."

Joe Johnson:

"When our offense wasn't working in the fourth, it seems like we gave up defensively as well. That's not a sign of a good team. We're better than that."

Phoenix scored 18 points on 20 fourth quarter possessions. They scored on 10 of those 20 possessions. Three of their 10 fourth quarter scores (Including twice in the five straight possessions on which Phoenix scored early in the fourth quarter. A poor defensive stretch, to be sure, but at its conclusion there was still 7:39 remaining in the game.) came courtesy of an offensive rebound. The Hawks didn't give up defensively. They were slightly worse than normal on the defensive glass for a short stretch and were consistently (and collectively) useless offensively for the entire second half.

Mike Woodson:

"I thought our offense hurt us tonight. It really put us behind. We ended up with 12 assists and we missed a lot of good shots and a lot of our shots were hurried shots."

February 19th Open Thread: Atlanta (34-18) @ Phoenix (32-23)

TIP-OFF: 9pm (EST)

TELEVISION: SportSouth

CHAT: Daily Dime Live (in which I will be participating)

RADIO: Hawks Radio Network, Audio League Pass

GAME NOTES: Hawks/Suns

ATLANTA INJURY REPORT: None.

PHOENIX INJURY REPORT: Leandro Barbosa is out.

BY THE NUMBERS

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (off)	89.5	1.128	50.5	21.5	27.3	13.2
PHX (def)	94.6	1.131	49.6	29.3	30	13.6

Team	Poss	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
ATL (def)	89.5	1.077	49.8	28.1	27.2	15.9
PHX (off)	94.6	1.156	54	23.5	26.6	15.9

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY: Phoenix -4, 213 o/u

OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Valley of the Suns

PREVIOUSLY, THE PHOENIX SUNS...split two road games since the resumption of play following the All-Star break. On Tuesday, they beat the Grizzlies 109-95 in Memphis. On Wednesday, they lost 107-97 to the Mavericks in Dallas. On Thursday, they didn't trade Amare Stoudemire.

The Hawks beat (in rather dramatic fashion) the Suns 102-101 in Atlanta on January 15th.

Consider this an open thread for all pre-game, in-game, and post-game (but pre-recap) thoughts.