Friday, December 24, 2010

Josh Smith, Jump Shooter? A Graphical Update

Previously: 12.8.10, 11.24.10, 11.9.10

The green line shows Smith's eFG% on all shot attempts outside of sixteen feet over the past four seasons. The red line shows Smith's eFG% on long (16-23 feet) two-point jumpers over the past four seasons. As you can see there was little difference in his results over that time.

The yellow and blue lines represent Smith's game-by-game season averages this season.

click to enlarge

Further updates for chart fiends...

Josh Smith3PTA/FGA
2005-0911.2%
2009-100.7%
2010-1113.1%

Smith's hot start (12-52) from beyond the arc has lifted his career 3PTFG% to 28.1%.

Smith is making a significantly higher percentage of his long two-point jump shots so far this season.

Josh SmitheFG% (16-23')
2006-0732.7
2007-0830.9
2008-0933.7
2009-1028.7
2010-1141.1

He's both taking and making a greater percentage of his long jump shots so far this season.

Josh Smith%FGA (16+')eFG% (16+')
2006-0740.334.5
2007-0830.432.9
2008-0930.837.4
2009-1024.727.9
2010-1141.350.6

Smith has continued to take a lower percentage of his shot attempts at the rim than in previous seasons. Some of that may be due to a data collection change at Hoopdata. Last season, 32.5% of shots in the NBA were categorized as at the rim. This season, 27.3% of shots in the NBA have been so categorized.

More of it has to do with shot selection. Smith has made just 10 and attempted just 23 shots at the rim over the last seven games, a stretch during which he's taken 41 jump shots outside of 16 feet. He's eFG% on those jump shots is 40.2%. All of which goes a fair way toward explaining why Smith has seen improved results as a jump shooter yet his eFG% this season is slightly lower than last season's.

Josh Smith%FGA (at rim)eFG% (at rim)
2006-074363.5
2007-0842.966.3
2008-094369
2009-1054.365.6
2010-1130.763.2

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