I don't know the right answers. The cap situation is a huge mess. It will take drastic, risky choices to create cap room at the first opportunity. That opportunity: approximately 15 months from now.
I can envision (and envision defending) the Hawks trading an average or a below average player to get below the luxury tax line this season or to get far enough below the 2012-13 luxury tax line to try and use an exception.
I can also envision (and envision defending) the Hawks not wanting to get a first-round draft picks in a deal that sends out the salary of an average or a below average player because that guaranteed money due the players drafted gets you back toward the luxury tax in 2012-13 and eats into the cap space that might be created in the Summer of 2013. Then again, to create that cap space, Josh Smith has to not be on the 2013-14 team and Josh Smith plus a draft pick might be worth something interesting and valuable on draft night this Summer.
Finally, I can envision no move at all. What evidence is there that the franchise has any problem with losing in the second round of the playoffs? If the Hawks remain in the top six in the Eastern Conference, that familiar result remains a real possibility, explained away by injuries, the future pinned to a draft pick who probably won't play much as a rookie and a promise to use some or all of the MLE.
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Sadly, keeping the status quo seems to be the likely scenario. Until new ownership shows up and proves that we want to seriously contend for a title, I don't see any major moves being made.
In other words, WYHIWYG (What you have is what you get).
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