Sunday Morning Projections

I'm going to hold off on writing about the off-season in any depth until at least one transaction is official. In the meantime, back of the envelope BPM noodling for the 2016-17 Atlanta Hawks, based on the incomplete knowledge we have:

Player	Minutes	OBPM	DBPM
Schroder	2500	-0.5	-0.5
Korver	2400	0.5	0.4
Bazemore	2294	-1.5	1.5
Millsap	2700	1.1	3.1
Howard	2100	-1.0	2.0
Backup PGs	1436	-2.6	-1.3
Sefolosha	1700	-2.0	2.7
Hardaway Jr	1000	-0.5	-1.2
Bembry	500	-2.0	-1.0
Scott	1000	-0.4	-1.8
Prince	600	-0.7	-2.3
Muscala	600	-1.2	1.0
Splitter	550	-1.9	1.1
Tavares	300	-3.5	1.5
(blank)
TOTAL	19680	-3.8	3.9

This would roughly be a top 5 defense and bottom 5 offense, good for 41 wins, give or take a few. I'll update as the summer progresses.

Notes:

• These are conservative, weighted heavily toward career averages, but tilted toward Hawks career averages (so maybe that's a really optimistic projection for Tim Hardaway, Jr.)
• The above projects a bounce-back season for Dwight Howard
• I plugged in established replacement-level backup point guard Norris Cole's career averages as a placeholder for the backup point guards the Hawks will eventually acquire
• Just guessing for Bembry and Prince, but unless the roster composition changes I don't think they'll play enough minutes for my ignorance when it comes to projecting rookies to have much of an impact on team-level projections